The π trick that beats every project estimate you'll ever make #planningfallacy

Take whatever time you just estimated. Multiply it by pi. That's closer to the truth than your gut. Software teams have used this folk rule for decades — and Flyvbjerg's formal version (Reference Class Forecasting, adopted by the UK Department for Transport in 2004) is essentially the same move. Works for projects, moves, meals, move-outs. Full method walkthrough on Fooled.
#planningfallacy #referenceclassforecasting #productivity #estimation #fooled

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