Pitfalls in a Post-Pandemic World: Deglobalization and Asymmetrical Normalization

Webinar with Professor Stephen Roach
Pitfalls in a Post-Pandemic World:
Deglobalization and Asymmetrical Normalization

Date: 8 July, 2020 (Wednesday)
Time: 09:00 - 10:00 (HKT)
Medium of language: English

Speaker
Professor Stephen Roach
Senior Fellow Yale Jackson Institute for Global Affairs
Former Chairman Morgan Stanley Asia

Supporting Organisations
Yale Jackson Institute for Global Affairs
Yale Alumni
Yale Club of Hong Kong
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• While governments contemplate or implement the exiting of Covid-19 lockdowns and the reopening of stalled economies, an early stage of asymmetrical normalization is observed; as in the case of China, kickstarting production is found to be easier than boosting consumer demand, especially the revival of face-to-face services (such as restaurants and retail shopping) amid fears of a coronavirus resurgence.

• Q1 of 2020 was marked with global shortages of medical gears and related supplies to cope with the fallout of Covid-19 – stoking concerns over supply chain security and assertive nationalism on the one hand, and US-China decoupling on the other, despite the pre-Covid inking of the phase-one US-China trade agreement. How far would calls for reshoring impinge on or reverse the globalization achieved over the past several decades?

• China’s ascendance and integration with the global economy since its WTO accession in late 2001 is most notable - eclipsing Japan in 2010 to become the world’s second largest economy after the US, with per capita income tripling since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. As the first major economy to emerge from Covid-19, would China be able to fill the void economically? Will waning US global leadership and resulting multi-polar fragmentation accentuate downside risk for the US dollar amid the limitless quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve?
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「團結卓爾論壇」系列
史蒂芬•羅奇教授分享：「後新冠疫情的陷阱：去全球化及非對稱常態化」

2020年7月8日 星期三 9:00-10:00
語言：英語

• 新冠肺炎疫情漸趨緩和，各國政府亦考慮或開始放寬限制措施，但重啟停滯的經濟活動時，出現了「非對稱常態化」的跡象。社會大衆憂慮疫情再次爆發，以中國内地為例，刺激消費比重啟生產更為困難，尤其是那些需要近距離接觸的行業（例如餐廳及零售業）。

• 2020年首季，新冠肺炎疫情爆發，全球各地醫療物資嚴重短缺。這引發了公眾對供應鏈安全、美國強硬民族主義和中美「脫鈎」等的擔憂。中美儘管在疫情爆發前簽署了首階段貿易協議，但並未能緩和雙方關係。海外工廠回流美國的呼聲日益高漲，這對經歷數十年才實現的全球化會帶來什麼影響？

• 自2001年底加入世界貿易組織，中國經濟快速崛起並融入全球體系，於2010年超越日本成為僅次於美國的世界第二大經濟體，人均收入水平更飆升至2008年全球金融危機時的三倍。作爲首個成功控制疫情的主要經濟體，中國能否填補全球經濟發展的空窗期？美國領導力的減弱和全球多極分化，加上美聯儲無限度量化寬鬆下，會否加劇美元的下行風險?

Видео Pitfalls in a Post-Pandemic World: Deglobalization and Asymmetrical Normalization канала Our Hong Kong Foundation 團結香港基金