Will there be another coup in Thailand?

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Last Thursday was another day of political cat and mouse, protesters staging three more rallies around Bangkok whilst officials again huffed and puffed, not really sure exactly how to proceed. Up to now their answer has been to arrest, then release, protest leaders. Then arrest them again… avoiding any real dialogue or progress on the demanded reforms.

Even a joint sitting of the Thai Parliament at the start of last week provided no clear way forward from the current impasse. Indeed a Suan Dusit Poll indicated that most people surveyed believed the joint sitting of parliament was just a stalling tactic by the incumbent coalition.
Then there were calls for another coup.

Thailand has already had 12 coups in an almost predictable cycle of military coup, revised constitutions, new elections, protests, the coup, rinse and repeat. Here’s nearly 90 years of Thai coup history in around 2 minutes…

1932: The bloodless coup of 1932, also known as the Siamese revolution, overthrew the absolute monarchy and established a constitutional monarchy.
1933: Military stepped in to remove the first Thai prime minister of Siam after 1932. Phraya Phahon, who played a key role, then became Siam's second PM, a position he served for 5 years.
1947: Thai military stepped in again to remove the elected government which had been marred by scandals and corruption. This coup solidified the role of the army in Thai politics.
1951: The Silent Coup was attempted while King Bhumibol Adulyadej was in Switzerland. The group then appointed a Field Marshal as the new prime minister.
1957: When the rigged parliamentary election of 1957 keep the current PM in power, mass protests occurred in Bangkok. Another Field Marshall staged a coup and an interim government was appointed.
1958: The head of the Thai military led a coup in 1958. It heralded the arrival of a new authoritarian era in Thai politics.
1971: Using the rise of Communism in South East Asia as a pretext, another Army Field Marshal stages a coup of his own government and dissolves parliament.
1976: Less than 8 months after an unsuccessful attempt at an overthrow, the Thai military stages a coup and overthrows the sitting PM. A Thai Admiral declares himself in charge of the newly formed National Administrative Reform Council.
1977: After less than a year in power, the PM and government was overthrown in a bloodless military coup led by the same Admiral who had put them in power.
1991: The sitting PM was arrested on his way to meet the Thai king, where he was reportedly planning to ask to appoint a deputy defence minister viewed as a rival to the military elite. The National Peacekeeping Guard assumed power.
2006: The armed forces dismissed the Thaksin Shinawatra government and revoked the country's 1997 constitution. The PM, on a visit to New York, declares a state of emergency in Bangkok after news of the coup.
2014: Thai Army chief Prayut Chan-O-Cha declares a military coup and dissolves the Yingluck Shinawatra government after months of deadly political turmoil between rival political factions calling themselves the Red Shirts and Yellow Shirts.

The parliamentary speaker, the respected Chuan Leekpai, insisted he didn’t want to chair any reconciliation committee.

A 2 day emergency joint sitting of parliament, which ended on Tuesday, failed to produce any resolution to the deteriorating political impasse. Indeed the ruling government insisted that no motions could be voted on after the debates. Nothing was resolved.

They’re young, mobile, motivated and use modern social media intuitively. There’s also a lot of them. Across the table, the current government, and the PM, have incumbency along with the support of the Thai army, the palace and the guns.

At some point there will have to be concessions from some, or all, of the main players. Any coup would merely push any real changes down the road and allow the current inconvenient discussions to fester.

Видео Will there be another coup in Thailand? канала The Thaiger