#470 Olivier Sibony - Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment

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RECORDED ON APRIL 23rd 2021.
Dr. Olivier Sibony is Associate Professor at HEC Paris. He is a writer, educator and consultant specializing in strategy, strategic decision making and the organization of decision processes. His research interests center on the effect of heuristics and biases in strategic decision making and procedures to improve the quality of decisions. He is the author of Cracked It!, You're About to Make a Terrible Mistake, and, more recently, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment.

In this episode, we focus on Noise. We start with some definitions of judgment, biases, and noise. We discuss if noise has causes behind it. We talk about noise in specific instances, like regular vs. recurrent decisions, and give examples in hiring decisions, insurance, student evaluation, criminal punishment, medicine, weather forecasting, and others. We also talk about predictive judgment. We tackle issues like group polarization and the wisdom of crowds. Finally, we talk about solutions to tackle noise.

Time Links:
00:00 Intro
00:28 Judgment, bias, and noise
18:04 Types of noise
27:20 Making predictions
32:51 Group polarization, and the wisdom of crowds
40:09 How much noise is “good” noise?
45:52 Should we trust the experts?
49:55 Solutions
1:01:08 Follow Dr. Sibony’s work!
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Follow Dr. Sibony’s work:
Faculty page: https://bit.ly/3dz87AU
Website: https://bit.ly/3auhjEj
ResearchGate profile: https://bit.ly/3tPhke0
Noise: https://amzn.to/3srvEZ5
Twitter handle: @SibOliv
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A HUGE THANK YOU TO MY PATRONS/SUPPORTERS: KARIN LIETZCKE, ANN BLANCHETTE, PER HELGE LARSEN, LAU GUERREIRO, JERRY MULLER, HANS FREDRIK SUNDE, BERNARDO SEIXAS, HERBERT GINTIS, RUTGER VOS, RICARDO VLADIMIRO, CRAIG HEALY, OLAF ALEX, PHILIP KURIAN, JONATHAN VISSER, JAKOB KLINKBY, ADAM KESSEL, MATTHEW WHITINGBIRD, ARNAUD WOLFF, TIM HOLLOSY, HENRIK AHLENIUS, JOHN CONNORS, PAULINA BARREN, FILIP FORS CONNOLLY, DAN DEMETRIOU, ROBERT WINDHAGER, RUI INACIO, ARTHUR KOH, ZOOP, MARCO NEVES, COLIN HOLBROOK, SUSAN PINKER, THOMAS TRUMBLE, PABLO SANTURBANO, SIMON COLUMBUS, PHIL KAVANAGH, JORGE ESPINHA, CORY CLARK, MARK BLYTH, ROBERTO INGUANZO, MIKKEL STORMYR, ERIC NEURMANN, SAMUEL ANDREEFF, FRANCIS FORDE, TIAGO NUNES, BERNARD HUGUENEY, ALEXANDER DANNBAUER, OMARI HICKSON, FERGAL CUSSEN, YEVHEN BODRENKO, HAL HERZOG, NUNO MACHADO, DON ROSS, JONATHAN LEIBRANT, JOÃO LINHARES, OZLEM BULUT, NATHAN NGUYEN, STANTON T, SAMUEL CORREA, ERIK HAINES, MARK SMITH, J.W., JOÃO EIRA, TOM HUMMEL, SARDUS FRANCE, DAVID SLOAN WILSON, YACILA DEZA-ARAUJO, IDAN SOLON, ROMAIN ROCH, DMITRY GRIGORYEV, TOM ROTH, DIEGO LONDOÑO CORREA, YANICK PUNTER, ADANER USMANI, CHARLOTTE BLEASE, MIRAN B, NICOLE BARBARO, ADAM HUNT, PAWEL OSTASZEWSKI, MAX BEILBY, AL ORTIZ, NELLEKE BAK, KATHRINE AND PATRICK TOBIN, GUY MADISON, GARY G HELLMANN, AND SAIMA AFZAL!
A SPECIAL THANKS TO MY PRODUCERS, YZAR WEHBE, JIM FRANK, ŁUKASZ STAFINIAK, IAN GILLIGAN, SERGIU CODREANU, LUIS CAYETANO, TOM VANEGDOM, CURTIS DIXON, BENEDIKT MUELLER, VEGA GIDEY, AND NIRUBAN BALACHANDRAN!
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