Ukraine is winning missile-drone war, Russian air defense is in chaos

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Ukraine continues to sink the Russian fleet. Kyiv is winning the missile-drone war.
Former Royal Navy officer and air defense expert Tom Sharp writes about this in a column for The Telegraph. He noted that the intensity of Ukraine’s attacks on Russian ships, port infrastructure and energy facilities is amazing.
At the end of last week, there was a complex attack on the port of Novorossiysk, the Tuapse oil refinery and the adjacent oil terminal. The attack was carried out by drones, including naval ones. The Russian defense tried to counteract them, but in vain.
On Sunday, ATACMS struck a pier in Sevastopol, sinking the minesweeper Kurovets, one of the few Russian warships that did not flee Crimea for the relative safety of Novorossiysk. There are also reports that a Karakurt-class missile corvette was sunk during the same attack. Since it was potentially armed with the long-range and extremely powerful Kalibr missile, this loss would be of great significance to the Russian Federation if confirmed.
Besides losing another ship, this is important on several levels. First, many believed that ATACMS' accuracy of about 9 meters was insufficient for use against ships. Additionally, the models in Ukrainian hands disperse large quantities of grenade-sized submunitions, negating the need for high precision. But it is unlikely that missiles with submunitions could have caused the ship to sink.
However, such missiles are armor-piercing and can destroy tanks. Hitting a ship with this missile is guaranteed to cause significant damage, and uncontrolled fire caused by submunitions can cause the ship to sink.
"It is quite possible that the Ukrainians actually used a variant of the ATACMS with a larger unitary warhead weighing 213 kg. This could certainly sink the ship," Sharp writes.
However, if the Ukrainians have a unitary ATACMS combat unit, it seems strange that they did not use some of them to destroy the Kerch Bridge. Now that the Russians have built a railway to transport goods along the "land bridge" north of Azov from Russia to Crimea, the Kerch Bridge is no longer an extremely important logistics supply route. But this is Ukraine's obvious goal.
What is clear is that Russian air defense systems are still in a state of chaos. The previous ATACMS attack destroyed a battery of S-400 anti-aircraft missiles and about 10 aircraft at Belbek airfield. The strike exposed the limitations of the much-touted S-400.
As the expert writes, in order to successfully protect against this type of attack, you need to have three levels: prevent, detect and destroy. The "alert" feature relies on intelligence, satellite surveillance and other inputs to let you know that an attack is imminent. If you are smart and have the right tools at hand, you can hit the enemy before he launches.

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Видео Ukraine is winning missile-drone war, Russian air defense is in chaos канала Kanal13