Tropical Storm Nicholas: Latest tracks, forecasts & models

As of Monday morning, Tropical Storm Nicholas was a little strong with winds of 60 mph and moving NNW near the southern tip of Texas

It is set to move into Texas late Monday and early Tuesday as a strong tropical storm or perhaps even a low-end hurricane. Landfall is forecast to be between Corpus Christi and Houston.

As it slowly progresses inland over eastern Texas midweek, it will spread deep tropical moisture and rain over Louisiana. Three to six inches of rain are likely for southeast Louisiana by the end of the week which could cause some flooding issues.

What is steering Nicholas?
The storm will first be steered by a ridge of high pressure over the southeast US. That will keep its path west toward Texas in the next couple of days. Once inland, the weakening storm will slow down as the high pressure retreats and the steering pattern becomes weaker. It is expected to crawl over east Texas Wednesday and Thursday between two weak areas of high pressure.

While it's over warm waters in the extreme western Gulf, it should be able to strengthen. However, there is some southwesterly shear that should limit its intensification. If it reaches the coast of Texas or north Mexico sooner, that would also cause it to weaken.

Louisiana Rain
For southeast Louisiana, the main effect from Nicholas will be rain this week. We'll need to watch for some tropical downpours through Wednesday or Thursday. Totals of 3-6+ inches look likely this week for southeast Louisiana, while 10+ inches of rain could fall along parts of southeast Texas.

At the moment, models are showing different amounts of rain for southeast Louisiana. The GFS model has been taking one of the most eastward tracks. It shows 3-6 inches for our area. The European model keeps the heavy rain farther west and much closer to the center of the storm. It predicts only 1-2 inches for our area. We will get a better idea in the next day or so, but be ready in case of a few inches of rain this week.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
Another spot to watch in the tropics is well off the East Coast of the US. A system may develop there in the next few days. It could eventually approach the Carolinas.

Another wave coming off of Africa has a medium chance of development this week. It's too soon to know what it will do.

The next names on the list are Odette and Peter.

Our area looks to remain quiet through next week.

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