ISSCC2018 - Semiconductor Innovation: Is the party over or just getting started?

Vince Roche, President & CEO, Analog Devices, Norwood, MA

The future pace of semiconductor innovation is by no means certain. A little more than a decade ago, Dennard scaling ground to a halt. Symposia and media outlets have been speculating on what comes after Moore’s Law for years now. Beyond these technology challenges, business challenges, as well, are putting pressure on traditional semiconductor innovation: semiconductor prices continue their steady decline while small geometry wafer fab facilities now cost close to $10B to build.
In this environment, is there any room for continued innovation or is the future of the semiconductor industry defined by incrementalism, commoditization, and financial engineering? If our future is the latter, how will we meet the demands of a world where businesses, governments, and societies are digitizing at a blazing pace? The spread of pervasive ubiquitous sensing, rapid advances in artificial intelligence, heterogeneous integration, and the continued impact of digitization on virtually every industry on earth will require more, not less, semiconductor innovation.
The physicist and philosopher Thomas Kuhn might describe our situation as the crisis that catalyzes a new paradigm. So what is the next paradigm for semiconductor innovation? What is our path forward as scientists, technologists, and an industry?

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