India's Great Slowdown | Presentation | Arvind Subramaniam

Dr. Arvind Subramanian is a visiting lecturer at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government and a non-resident Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE). He is the former Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India. Previously, he was the Dennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow at the PIIE, Senior Fellow at the Center for Global Development and Senior Research Professor at Johns Hopkins University. He had served at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) since 1992, most recently as Assistant Director in the research department (2004–07). He worked at the GATT (1988–92) during the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations and taught at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government (1999–2000). During his career at the Fund, he worked on trade, development, Africa, India, and the Middle East.
Abstract of the Paper:
In the immediate aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), two key drivers of growth decelerated. Export growth slowed sharply as world trade stagnated, while investment fell victim to a homegrown Balance Sheet crisis, which came in two waves. Standard remedies are unavailable: monetary policy is stymied by a broken transmission mechanism; large fiscal stimulus will only push up already-high interest rates, worsening the growth dynamic. The traditional structural reform agenda—land and labour market measures—will not address the current problems. The only way to ensure the economy recovers durably is to address the Four Balance Sheet problem decisively. And even before that a Data Big Bang is needed to restore trust and enable better policy design.

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