Argentina Surging, Spain Slipping — Who Wins the World Cup Now?

Spain still tops our model at 13.5%, but the gap is closing: after the latest group results, Argentina jumped to 8.9% while Spain and England both slipped. France (13.3%) and Portugal (10.8%) are right on Spain's heels. Here's who the simulation says wins the World Cup now — and exactly how the race shifted overnight.

This is a statistical model for entertainment, not betting advice.

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Image credits (Creative Commons):
• World Cup Trophy: Ank Kumar / CC BY-SA 4.0 / via Wikimedia Commons
• Lamine Yamal (Spain): Biso / CC BY 4.0 / via Wikimedia Commons
• Kylian Mbappé (France): Антон Зайцев / CC BY-SA 3.0; Biser Todorov / CC BY 4.0 / via Wikimedia Commons
• Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal): Ludovic Péron / CC BY-SA 3.0; Dietmar Rabich / CC BY-SA 4.0; Luis Miguel Bugallo Sánchez / CC BY-SA 4.0 / via Wikimedia Commons
• Jude Bellingham (England): Hossein Zohrevand / CC BY 4.0 / via Wikimedia Commons
• Lionel Messi (Argentina): Voltmetro / CC BY-SA 4.0; Ludovic Péron / CC BY-SA 3.0; Hossein Zohrevand / CC BY 4.0 / via Wikimedia Commons
• Vinícius Júnior (Brazil): Hossein Zohrevand / CC BY-SA 4.0; All-Pro Reels / CC BY-SA 2.0; Agencia de Noticias ANDES / CC BY-SA 2.0 / via Wikimedia Commons
• Christian Pulisic (USA): Hossein Zohrevand / CC BY 4.0 / via Wikimedia Commons

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