Velvet Glove, Meet Iron Fist: The China Tech Crackdown
In valuation and investing, we generally do not explicitly consider the effects of the Government, when valuing and pricing companies. That practice, while justified when government policy is stable, can be problematic, when it is not, because government action or inaction can affect almost every aspect of value from increasing/decreasing revenue growth to pushing up/down margins to even changing the price of risk in equity and bond markets. In this session, I look at the Chinese government's crackdown on big Chinese tech companies, and argue that while the stated reasons are noble (protecting customer privacy and increasing competition), the real reason is control (of companies and data). I value Tencent, Alibaba, JD.com and Didi under three scenarios - a benevolent government, a government that is more net negative than positive (my base case) and an adversarial government, and find Tencent and Alibaba to be "under valued", in the base case. (My spreadsheets are linked below, if you are interested).
Slides: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/blog/ChinaTech.pdf
Blog Post: https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2021/09/chinas-tech-crackdown-market-adjustment.html
Valuation spreadsheets:
1. Tencent (Benevolent): https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/Tencent2021Benevolent.xlsx
2. Tencent (Net Minus): https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/Tencent2021NetMinus.xlsx
3. Tencent (Adversarial): https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/Tencent2021Adversary.xlsx
4. Alibaba (Benevolent): https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/Alibaba2021Benevolent.xlsx
5. Alibaba (Net Minus): https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/Alibaba2021NetMinus.xlsx
6. Alibaba (Adversarial): https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/Alibaba2021Adversaru.xlsx
7. JD.com (Benevolent): https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/JD2021Benevolent.xlsx
8. JD.com (Net Minus): https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/JD2021NetMinus.xlsx
9. JD.com (Adversarial): https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/JD2021Adversary.xlsx
10. Didi (Benevolent): https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/Didi2021Benevolent.xlsx
11. Didi (Net Minus): https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/Didi2021NetMinus.xlsx
12. Didi (Adversarial): https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/Didi2021Adversary.xlsx
Видео Velvet Glove, Meet Iron Fist: The China Tech Crackdown канала Aswath Damodaran
Slides: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/blog/ChinaTech.pdf
Blog Post: https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2021/09/chinas-tech-crackdown-market-adjustment.html
Valuation spreadsheets:
1. Tencent (Benevolent): https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/Tencent2021Benevolent.xlsx
2. Tencent (Net Minus): https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/Tencent2021NetMinus.xlsx
3. Tencent (Adversarial): https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/Tencent2021Adversary.xlsx
4. Alibaba (Benevolent): https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/Alibaba2021Benevolent.xlsx
5. Alibaba (Net Minus): https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/Alibaba2021NetMinus.xlsx
6. Alibaba (Adversarial): https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/Alibaba2021Adversaru.xlsx
7. JD.com (Benevolent): https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/JD2021Benevolent.xlsx
8. JD.com (Net Minus): https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/JD2021NetMinus.xlsx
9. JD.com (Adversarial): https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/JD2021Adversary.xlsx
10. Didi (Benevolent): https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/Didi2021Benevolent.xlsx
11. Didi (Net Minus): https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/Didi2021NetMinus.xlsx
12. Didi (Adversarial): https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/Didi2021Adversary.xlsx
Видео Velvet Glove, Meet Iron Fist: The China Tech Crackdown канала Aswath Damodaran
Показать
Комментарии отсутствуют
Информация о видео
Другие видео канала
![](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/GIaKBFHxwOQ/default.jpg)
![Session 1: Introduction to Valuation](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/znmQ7oMiQrM/default.jpg)
![Aswath Damodaran: "ESG is the most oversold and overhyped concept in the history of business."](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/AWRk46h2ySI/default.jpg)
![Aswath Damodaran On The ‘Dark Side Of Valuation’](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/3DtpkMOjH7s/default.jpg)
![Inflation and Investing: False Alarm or Fair Warning?](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/p0vqmjgF3E4/default.jpg)
![End of an Era or Temporary Setback: Revisiting the FANGAM Stocks](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/y3KqRoTN9nk/default.jpg)
![Why Mohnish Pabrai Ditched Alibaba for Tencent](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/xm2kvhRor3M/default.jpg)
![The Zomato IPO: A Bet on Big Markets and User Platforms!](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/baKYuxwiS1o/default.jpg)
![Tesla at a Trillion-Dollar Market Cap: Revisiting its Valuation](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/8rZps01Ok7I/default.jpg)
![Why Mohnish Pabrai Loves Tencent : (I Bought More Tencent Stock)](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/-vF_nZ526y0/default.jpg)
![Mohnish Pabrai: The Untold Story Of Li Lu. Li Lu(Charlie Munger Protege) Investment Strategy.](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/dkBbD2v6RQQ/default.jpg)
![3 Stocks To Buy - SBUX, MMM, VZ - Valuation & Analysis](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/qQdGDIH7lUA/default.jpg)
![Legendary Value Investor Mohnish Pabrai on Turkish Stocks, Big Tech, and Lessons from Warren Buffett](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/n6cX8l8iQKE/default.jpg)
![Mohnish Pabrai on Chinese Stocks | BABA Tencent Stock INTERVIEW (Part 3/4)](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/I0_aw0XbkRQ/default.jpg)
![Aswath Damodaran, 'Dean Of Valuation', Take On Markets, Cryptos, IPO On Moneycontrol Masterclass](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/3IBD0BzbNj8/default.jpg)
![Facebook: Friendless, but still formidable!](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/mSmgox_zDIg/default.jpg)
![Tencent Stock Analysis & Valuation : Better than Alibaba Stock? 25% Undervalued!](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/kt9dTRcflaw/default.jpg)
![Alibaba Stock: Understanding China's Ecommerce Giant](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/TyGtwIlKkDU/default.jpg)
![The Illusion of Smart Money - Webinar with Aswath Damodaran](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/RpURkpm9iVM/default.jpg)
![User Based Companies: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly!](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/e0x8d3UplxQ/default.jpg)