The Untold Truth About Risk in Human Spaceflight | Dr. Erik Antonsen Lecture Series Part 1

Welcome to Part 1 of the Risk and Human Spaceflight lecture series with Dr. Erik Antonsen, presented by the Organization for Space Medicine, Engineering & Design (OSMED).

In this opening lecture, Dr. Antonsen—former NASA physician, risk board chair, and leading voice in space medicine—breaks down how risk is defined, measured, and prioritized in human spaceflight. From Apollo and the Space Shuttle era to the rise of commercial crew programs and the future of Mars exploration, this lecture reveals how engineering, medicine, and risk management intersect to shape astronaut safety and mission success.

This 5-part series explores:
- How NASA defines “safe enough” in spaceflight
- The difference between uncertainty vs. risk
- Why probabilistic risk assessment is critical for astronauts
- Lessons learned from Challenger, Columbia, and Apollo 13
- How risk management applies to both vehicles and humans
For more about OSMED and upcoming events, visit: https://www.osmed.org

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction – Why risk matters in human spaceflight
01:11 Defining risk and its role in NASA decision-making
02:26 Prioritization challenges: comparing “apples and oranges”
05:06 Historical perspective: from Babylon to the Age of Enlightenment
07:03 How probability theory changed risk management
09:26 Defining risk management in human spaceflight
10:13 Four types of risk management methods
13:00 Risk vs. uncertainty explained
15:03 Space Shuttle risk analysis and probability of crew loss
17:06 Comparing shuttle risk to WWII B-17 pilots
18:19 Vehicle failure rates across launch systems
19:35 How risk decreases with usage (cars, aviation, mountaineering)
21:27 New risks in commercial spaceflight
22:30 Framing risk: vehicles vs. people
23:52 Why rates and denominators matter in risk communication
25:13 Vehicle-centric vs. person-centric risk metrics
27:34 How framing changes our perception of safety
29:15 Usage vs. fatalities – why framing matters
30:16 NASA’s definitions: Loss of Crew, Mission, Vehicle
32:14 Challenger and Richard Feynman on NASA’s risk numbers
34:15 The problem with “engineering judgment”
36:10 What is “safe enough” in spaceflight?
38:45 How NASA sets and adjusts risk thresholds
41:19 Why risk thresholds sometimes get relaxed
43:20 Who decides what’s safe enough?
44:39 Continuous risk management at NASA
47:14 How changing missions alter risk (ISS, Moon, Mars, commercial)
50:02 Beyond the “five hazards” of spaceflight
52:08 Human-centric outcomes: loss of life, long-term health, recertification
54:16 NASA’s Human System Risk Matrix explained
57:37 Funding decisions and risk reduction
59:10 Risk-informed decision-making: who sets thresholds
01:01:25 Apollo 13 case study: medical risk and engineering risk
01:03:08 Behavioral health and deep vein thrombosis in space
01:05:27 Fires, carbon monoxide, and environmental hazards
01:07:02 EVA risks and astronaut survival cases
01:08:30 Vision risks: Spaceflight Associated Neuro-ocular Syndrome (SANS)
01:09:25 Conflicts of interest and “risk inflation” in research

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Видео The Untold Truth About Risk in Human Spaceflight | Dr. Erik Antonsen Lecture Series Part 1 канала OSMED