Trump's Venezuela Gamble — 4 Months After Maduro's Capture | NPA Deep Dive

On January 3, 2026, Donald Trump launched Operation Absolute Resolve to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The mission took 2 hours and 28 minutes. Trump announced the U.S. would "run the country" until a transition could be arranged. Four months later, nobody knows who's actually in charge — and experts are warning this is Iraq 2.0.

Key takeaways:
- Jan 3 operation removed Maduro in 2h28m (one of shortest wars in history)
- 40-80 deaths including Maduro's guard + 32 Cuban troops
- Trump: "We're gonna run the country" BUT Rubio said "no direct governing role" 2 days later
- Delcy Rodríguez (Maduro's VP) now interim president — regime intact minus Maduro
- María Corina Machado (democratic opposition leader) sidelined by Trump
- Primary motivation: oil control ("reimbursement for damages")
- Trump ran against forever wars — now nation-building in Venezuela
- Legal controversy: Sen Warner "Does this mean any large country can indict smaller country's ruler?"
- 4 months in: no clear plan, no democratic transition, oil focus confirmed

Sources:
- Wikipedia — 2026 United States Intervention in Venezuela
- Brookings Institution — Making Sense of the US Military Operation in Venezuela
- International Crisis Group — Venezuela After Maduro: Transaction or Transition?
- Chatham House — US Attacks Venezuela Early Analysis
- CBS News, House of Commons Library, US DoD statements
All content is for educational and analytical purposes only. No investment advice is provided.

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