How to Predict Stock Market Crashes using Mathematical Models

Some financial bubbles can be diagnosed before they burst. Let's see how.

0:00 Intro
0:33 Super-exponential growth
1:40 Log-Periodic Power Law (LPPL)
3:23 Bubble indicators
3:54 LPPL Singularity Confidence Indicator
5:03 Financial Crisis Observatory
5:23 Trading strategies
6:08 Herd behavior
6:32 Cryptocurrency bubbles
7:05 Deep learning experiments

References

Financial Crisis Observatory
http://tasmania.ethz.ch/pubfco/fco.html

Why Stock Markets Crash by Didier Sornette
https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691175959/why-stock-markets-crash

A Stable and Robust Calibration Scheme of the Log-Periodic Power Law Model
https://arxiv.org/abs/1108.0099

Real-Time Prediction and Post-Mortem Analysis of the Shanghai 2015 Stock Market Bubble and Crash
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2693634

Theses that backtest trading strategies based on LPPLS indicators
https://ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/mtec/chair-of-entrepreneurial-risks-dam/documents/dissertation/master%20thesis/Master_Thesis_Nhat%20Quang_Pham%20Huu.pdf
https://ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/mtec/chair-of-entrepreneurial-risks-dam/documents/dissertation/master%20thesis/master_thesis_Tinatin%20_4March2019.pdf

Mesmerising Mass Sheep Herding
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDQw21ntR64

Видео How to Predict Stock Market Crashes using Mathematical Models канала Leo Isikdogan