The War is Now in Crimea: Kerch HALTED as Ukraine Hits Main Radar Shield with Most Powerful Strikes

#ukrainewar #ukrainewarupdate #military #militarydevelopments #militarystrategy
Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR) released video of a coordinated sea‑to‑air strike in occupied Crimea: FPV drones launched from uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) hit a Project 02510 BK‑16 fast craft and multiple radar sites, including units identified as Nebo‑SVU, Podlet‑K1, and 96L6E, with a radar dome on Mount Ai‑Petri among the targets. OSINT and Ukrainian outlets broadly align on the locations and systems; some analysts argue one radar was the rarer 98L6 “Yenisei” (S‑500 family) rather than 96L6—so we flag that ID as contested for now. In parallel, the Kerch Bridge saw repeated closures and lengthy queues, underscoring the logistical friction that follows deep‑strike activity. We break down how USV‑launched FPVs expand attack geometry, what losing these sensors means for Russian cueing of S‑400 batteries, and how Ukraine might exploit new “windows” for long‑range strikes. Then we test three near‑term scenarios and the indicators that could prove us wrong.

Sources
• Kyiv Independent — “Inflicting ‘serious losses’…” (radars + BK‑16; HUR video)
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-strikes-russian-radar-systems-landing-craft-in-crimea/
• The War Zone (The Drive) — USVs launch FPVs on Crimea radars (method/video)
https://www.twz.com/news-features/uncrewed-boats-launch-fpv-drone-strike-on-key-russian-radars-located-on-crimeas-southern-tip
• Ukrainska Pravda (Eng.) — HUR/“Prymary (Phantoms)” claim, Ai‑Petri dome, radar list
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/08/7/7525152/
• United24 Media — Ai‑Petri domes + radar types; BK‑16 (HUR footage)
https://united24media.com/latest-news/top-secret-russian-radar-domes-in-crimea-obliterated-by-ukrainian-drones-video-10544
• Militarnyi — DIU destroyed boat + three radars; domes on Ai‑Petri
https://militarnyi.com/en/news/diu-destroyed-russian-boat-and-three-radars-in-crimea/
• NV (English) — 98L6 “Yenisei” strike claim (contested vs. 96L6)
https://english.nv.ua/russian-war/ukraine-hits-russian-s-500-radar-in-crimea-intelligence-says-50535789.html
• UAWire — OSINT argues 98L6 Yenisei, not 96L6
https://uawire.org/ukrainian-drones-hit-russian-cutting-edge-radar-system-in-crimea
• RBC‑Ukraine (Eng.) — HUR video; BK‑16; 3rd Radio‑Technical Regiment
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-s-intel-fighters-destroy-russian-1754570909.html
• USM (Ukrainian shipping media) — “Ghosts” hit Ai‑Petri dome; BK‑16
https://en.usm.media/defense-intelligenceghosts-destroyed-a-russian-boat-and-an-air-defense-dome-on-ai-petri-video/

Kerch closures / queues (Aug 7, 2025)
• Mezha (ENG) — Kerch closures, queue counts, train delays
https://mezha.net/eng/bukvy/crimean-bridge-blocked-amid-drone-attacks-on-august-7-2025/
• Mezha (ENG) — Follow‑up: train delays, ~3,450 vehicles queued
https://mezha.net/eng/bukvy/train-delays-to-crimea-on-august-7-due-to-drone-debris-incident/

• Kavkaz‑Uzel (Caucasian Knot) — Queues on both sides; two closures
https://eng.kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/67131
• Kyiv Independent — Overnight explosions; Kerch closed ~5 hours (earlier in week)
https://kyivindependent.com/explosions-drones-reported-in-crimea-overnight/

Radar capability references
• TRADOC ODIN (US Army) — 1L119 Nebo‑SVU background
https://odin.tradoc.army.mil/WEG/Asset/ecaf2218a0caf9651baf426145150f37
• Radartutorial — 96L6E “Cheese Board” (S‑300/400 acquisition)
https://www.radartutorial.eu/19.kartei/02.surv/karte044.en.html
• GlobalSecurity — 96L6/96L6E program context
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/96l6.htm

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