Measuring impact in basketball | Plus minus & RAPM

Have we found the Holy Grail of basketball stats? In Part 5 of the Thinking Basketball stats series, we dive into the entire world of plus-minus as a way to determine impact or value. Is single-game plus-minus any good? Full season vs. on/off data? How do we account for teammates? And if we make the right adjustments, do we have an ideal one-number stat for ranking NBA players?

Stats series: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLtzZl14BrKjTJZdubjNEY5jU0fGOiy51x

Additional resources:

Rob Antle summarizing RAPM: https://basketballstat.home.blog/2019/08/14/regularized-adjusted-plus-minus-rapm/

Daniel Myers on APMs: http://godismyjudgeok.com/DStats/2011/nba-stats/a-review-of-adjusted-plusminus-and-stabilization/

Joe Sill's paper using Ridge Regression: http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/joeSillSloanSportsPaperWithLogo.pdf

Justin Jacobs series on Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM)
https://squared2020.com/2017/09/18/deep-dive-on-regularized-adjusted-plus-minus-i-introductory-example/
https://squared2020.com/2018/12/24/regularized-adjusted-plus-minus-part-iii-what-had-really-happened-was/
https://squared2020.com/2019/10/03/exercising-error-quantifying-statistical-tests-under-rapm-part-iv/

WOWYR primer: http://www.backpicks.com/2016/09/06/ii-historical-impact-introducing-wowyr/

How to use lineup data responsibly: https://backpicks.com/2019/12/14/your-lineup-looks-great-but-how-stable-is-that-net-rating/

Support at Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Basketball-Ben-Taylor/dp/1532968175/ref=sxts_sxwds-bia?keywords=Thinking+Basketball&pd_rd_i=1532968175&pd_rd_r=9ad682ff-3558-4568-a7a5-14d93a581125&pd_rd_w=5AOjl&pd_rd_wg=r6Pu8&pf_rd_p=b0a90583-d22c-4c32-806b-f09cd6946e61&pf_rd_r=1YXTYPWBFVNB3HMNC1PF&qid=1560542437&s=gateway
Podcast: https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/ben-taylor/thinking-basketball-podcast (available on iTunes, Spotify, etc.)
Website: https://www.backpicks.com
Twitter: @elgee35

Ben Taylor is the author of Thinking Basketball, a Nylon Calculus contributor, creator of the Backpicks Top 40 series & host of the Thinking Basketball podcast.

Stats courtesy:
http://www.pbpstats.com @bballport
https://www.basketball-reference.com
https://stats.nba.com
https://www.nbashotcharts.com

Player art by @CrumpledJumper
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Music: Music by Jordan Ciurcovich (Forest) & The Way Forward, 80s Hairlight (Instrumental)

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