BITCOIN TRADERS RESPOND TO INFLATION DATA: Do BTC Bulls Have Enough Momentum to Push Higher

At the beginning of the week I told you that a Fed chair Powell's speech and inflation data would trigger volatility across markets, and we are certainly seeing that play out now. all inflation data are not created equal and interpreting it can sometimes be tricky. headline numbers for yesterday's PPI reports came in slightly hot, but the market did not overreact. In fact, rather than dump, The market seemed to take the time to digest the numbers and wait for Fed Chair Powell’s take on things. In his presentation yesterday, Powell said he didn't interpret the numbers as hot, he interpreted them as mixed. He also held the line policy stating something to the effect of, at this time he feels FED Policy is restrictive and that he did not foresee a rate hike as the FED’s next move. One subtlelty I picked up on is that over the past year, he has been saying that he felt that Fed policy was "sufficiently restrictive” whereas, this time he simply said, “restrictive” and later added that we will have to wait and see if it is sufficient. Whatever the case, he seems patient. The market however, does not seem patient.

As difficult as the PPI report may have been to interpret, today’s Core Inflation and CPI reports seem to be very easy. Good News = Good News.

With the help of an early morning roof pull of a $28M Sell Wall at $64k, BTC price had already begun trending upward, and when today’s U.S. inflation data hit the wire, the market responded immediately by pushing the price above a key level of technical resistance. The 21-Day moving average has been as difficult to R/S flip as the $69k level has been. This is obviously a move in the right direction for Bitcoin Bulls, however, it's too soon to tell if it's sustainable. we'll need to see a close above the 21 Day moving average, and ultimately start seeing full candle bodies print above it starting tomorrow. Meanwhile, the 50-Day Moving Average is also coming into focus. While I am watching this closely, there are a few things worth pointing out that are potential barriers in the way of a return to the 70k range and ultimately a valid Breakout to new all-time highs.

The nearest obstacle is the 50-Day Moving average which currently sits at $65.1k just above the sell wall at $65k.

The second issue is the fact that bid support is still relatively thin down to the $60k - $61k range.

Lastly, we’ve not seen any retest of support anywhere near the local low at $56.5k, nor have we seen a retest of either of the previous two consolidation ranges. It doesn’t mean we have to retest any of those levels, but IMO retesting any or all of them would be a healthy way to validate the bottom and serve as a stronger foundation for the next leg up.

As I stated earlier, Traders are impatient and it’s understandable that many have piled in to this move. Too soon to know if it’s merely a swing trade or if it’s going to develop into something more, but for me, the fact that we haven’t retested support and we still don’t have a heavy concentration of near range bid liquidity in the order book are indications that we might see the lower end of the range revisited at some point before a validated breakout above $69k. That said, ETF demand has been NET positive so far this week, and FireCharts shows BTC liquidity is moving on both sides of price.

One more set of Economic Reports are scheduled for Thursday.
For Jobless Claims: Bad News = Good News, as a cooling labor market would be an important factor in deciding when to cut rates, whereas a hot labor market would indicate rates stay high for longer. #NFA

Downside targets are unchanged for me. I’d love to see a test of support at the 21-Week Moving Average.

To the upside, technical resistance at $65k, is literally getting hit right now at the time of writing. Watching to see if bulls have enough momentum to carry this above $69k.

Time for patience and risk management.

Have a great day!! 😎
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*Opinions Only. No Financial Advice.

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Видео BITCOIN TRADERS RESPOND TO INFLATION DATA: Do BTC Bulls Have Enough Momentum to Push Higher канала Brad Nickel