J7409 Weather Tropical SEVERE & General

J7409 Weather Tropical,SEVERE & General.
watch https://youtu.be/9xciaaFy77Q
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms, along with gusty winds in
these thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is
possible over next day or so while it moves westward at about 15 to
20 mph across the central Caribbean Sea. After that time, the wave
is forecast to move more slowly west-northwestward, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the
system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. An elongated area of low pressure, located a little over 1000 miles
east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a concentrated
area of showers and thunderstorms mainly on the west side of the
disturbance. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during
the next day or two while the system moves generally
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western
portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

3. A large area of showers and thunderstorms, located over Guinea and
Sierra-Leone, Africa, is associated with a vigorous tropical wave.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
some development of this system while the wave enters the extreme
eastern Atlantic on Friday. By early next week, however, conditions
are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation
while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph toward the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Isolated strong/locally severe wind gusts will be possible within a large, arc-shaped area from portions of Idaho and southwestern Montana eastward into parts of South Dakota and Nebraska, southward across the central and southern High Plains, and westward to southeastern Arizona. A few strong storms may also spread across the Arrowhead of Minnesota.
.Record heat in the West will become less intense but fire danger will
progress from the interior Northwest toward the central Great Basin...

...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist for the coming days
across the southeastern quadrant of the country...

A strong mid/upper-level ridge of high pressure that is responsible for
the recent heat wave across the western U.S. is forecast to gradually
weaken. This will allow the record heat to continue its slow moderation
for the coming days across the region. Nevertheless, record high
temperatures are still forecast today for some locations in the Great
Basin and remains widespread in the Desert Southwest. In addition to the
heat, the dry conditions will enhance fire danger, especially for the
interior northwestern U.S., where lightning strikes associated with
isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms ahead of a Pacific front could
ignite wildfires. Elevated to critical fire danger should then progress
toward the central Great Basin on Thursday as the front pushes farther to
the south and east.

Meanwhile, much of the eastern half of the country will experience cooler
than normal temperatures thanks to persistent upper-level troughing.
While mainly fine weather is expected for the Plains, the Midwest and the
Northeast, tropical moisture interacting with a stalled front will keep a
good chance of showers and thunderstorms for much of the Southeast
including Florida as well as the Mid-Atlantic for the coming days. It
appears that general rainfall totals are not especially heavy for the
area. Nevertheless, some locally heavy rain could lead to flooding
concerns in parts of the area.

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