Macro Update: April 6, 2026 – The Energy-to-Demand Cascade

Context: West Asia war has escalated, with rising tension at the Strait of Hormuz – the world’s key oil chokepoint.

Oil Shock: Crude sustained above $100/barrel. IEA warns this could be the most severe supply-driven oil shock since 1973.

India Direct Impact:

Rupee slips below 93 – clear external pressure.

Imported inflation rising – fuel, fertiliser, logistics costs up → ripple effect on food & daily consumption.

Policy & Liquidity:

RBI in wait-and-watch mode; repo rate expected at ~5.25% (neutral).

Banks issuing CDs at near 2-year highs – early liquidity tightening.

Sectoral Hits:

Airlines – ~₹2,500 cr loss; capacity utilization ~60% (India-Europe/Gulf routes worst hit).

Farmers – hoarding fertiliser (India imports 20-30% urea, ~30% DAP from Gulf).

Government – diverting ~7 mmscmd natural gas to priority sectors – supply crunch real.

Auto – FY27 growth moderation expected after strong FY26.

Pharma – US proposes 100% tariff on patented drugs – risk to Indian CDMOs.

Markets: Sensex/Nifty down ~13-16% YTD – clear risk-off sentiment.

The Bright Spot: Clean energy & EV demand accelerating – 31% growth (double auto average). High fuel cost pushing adoption.

Ground Stress: LPG shortages & higher prices forcing migrant workers back to villages – early signal of demand slowdown.

Видео Macro Update: April 6, 2026 – The Energy-to-Demand Cascade канала MACRO WITH RAHUL CHAUDHARY044