Trump's reciprocal tariffs one year on: Impact on global trade and growth

트럼프 상호관세 1년… 세계 교역 질서와 경제 영향은?

Welcome to Within The Frame, where we bring the most pressing issues across the globe into focus. I'm Kim Mok-yeon.
One year ago, U.S. President Donald Trump declared what he called “Liberation Day,” launching sweeping reciprocal tariffs on countries around the world.
The goal was clear: revive American manufacturing, reduce trade deficits, and bring supply chains back to the United States.
But a year on, the results appear mixed.
While some supply chains have shifted, many have simply moved to other countries rather than returning to the U.S.
The policy is also facing legal scrutiny after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that some of the administration’s tariff measures were unlawful, even as Washington continues expanding tariffs into sectors like steel and pharmaceuticals.

So one year on, what has been the real economic impact of these tariffs? And what could they mean for the global economy going forward?

For answers to this, we invite Sunhyung Lee, Assistant Professor of Economics at Montclair State University. Welcome.
Also joining us is Kwak Jun-hee, Assistant Professor of Economics at Sogang University. Good to see you.
(LEE) 1. It has now been about a year since President Donald Trump launched sweeping reciprocal tariffs on most U.S. trading partners, calling it “Liberation Day.” One year on, how would you assess the overall impact of these tariffs on the global economy?
(KWAK) 2. Domestically, the Trump administration has argued that tariffs would revive U.S. manufacturing.
But some studies suggest the overall impact on GDP has been minimal, and manufacturing employment has not clearly increased. How should we interpret these mixed results?
(LEE) 3. There are also concerns about inflation and consumer costs. Some estimates suggest tariffs added about 0.5 percentage points to U.S. inflation and raised household expenses. How meaningful is that impact for the U.S. economy?
(KWAK) 4. Many studies suggest that most of the tariff costs are actually being paid by U.S. companies and consumers rather than foreign exporters.
How does that change the way we should evaluate the effectiveness of these tariffs?
(LEE) 5. Following the tariffs, supply chains appear to be shifting to countries like Vietnam or Mexico rather than returning to the United States, while even U.S. allies are looking to diversify their trade away from the American market. Could this reshape the global trade order over the longer term?
(KWAK) 6. In relation to this, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the administration’s reciprocal tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unlawful. What implications could this ruling have for the legal foundation of U.S. tariff policy?
(LEE) 7. After the Supreme Court ruled the reciprocal tariffs unlawful, the administration quickly moved to impose new tariffs under other legal authorities.
How significant is this shift, and what does it mean for the future of U.S. tariff policy?
(KWAK) 8. And lately, we’re also seeing Washington slap new sector-specific tariffs — including 25 percent tariffs on steel-related products like appliances and up to 100 percent tariffs on certain patented pharmaceuticals. What kind of impact could these measures have on global industries and supply chains?
(LEE) 9. For export-driven economies like South Korea, new tariffs on products containing steel, aluminum, or copper could affect appliances and other manufactured goods. How exposed are Korean industries to these measures?
(KWAK) 10. Finally, these tariff moves are unfolding at a time of rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns about higher oil prices.
What risks could this combination pose for the global economy, and how should governments and businesses gear up for them?
We'll have to leave our discussion right here, many thanks to Prof.Kwak and Prof.Lee, we appreciate it.

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2026-04-14, 20:30 (KST)

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