...BUT Will Storms Actually Reach Their Full Potential?

DAY 1 — Saturday, May 16, 2026 (SPC 1300 UTC update, issued 0748 AM CDT)
Threats: large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes across the central Plains into Iowa; damaging winds and isolated severe hail with a brief tornado possible across western/central Kentucky.

ENHANCED RISK (hail, damaging wind, few tornadoes): Kearney, NE; North Platte, NE; Lexington, NE
SLIGHT RISK (damaging wind, hail, isolated tornado): Omaha, NE; Louisville, KY; Lexington-Fayette, KY; Lincoln, NE; Des Moines, IA
MARGINAL RISK (isolated wind/hail): Chicago, IL; Indianapolis, IN; Columbus, OH; Denver, CO; Kansas City, MO

DAY 2 — Sunday, May 17, 2026 (SPC 0600 UTC update, issued 0101 AM CDT)
Threats: supercells with very large hail (2–3 inch) and a few tornadoes (some strong) ahead of upscale growth into a damaging wind threat overnight from central Nebraska into southwest Minnesota.

ENHANCED RISK (very large hail, damaging wind, few strong tornadoes): Sioux Falls, SD; Sioux City, IA; Grand Island, NE; Kearney, NE; Fremont, NE
SLIGHT RISK (hail, wind, isolated tornado): Omaha, NE; Minneapolis, MN; St. Paul, MN; Lincoln, NE; Des Moines, IA
MARGINAL RISK (isolated hail/wind near the dryline): Denver, CO; Oklahoma City, OK; Kansas City, MO; Tulsa, OK; Wichita, KS

DAY 3 — Monday, May 18, 2026 (SPC 0730 UTC update, issued 0236 AM CDT) — HEADLINE DAY
Threats: supercells capable of all hazards including very large hail (2–4 inch) and strong to intense tornadoes across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska, with upscale growth and damaging winds expanding eastward; SPC notes higher probabilities may be warranted as mesoscale details clarify.

ENHANCED RISK (very large hail, strong to intense tornadoes, damaging wind): Kansas City, MO; Omaha, NE; Wichita, KS; Lincoln, NE; Des Moines, IA
SLIGHT RISK (hail, wind, isolated tornado): Chicago, IL; Milwaukee, WI; Oklahoma City, OK; Tulsa, OK; Minneapolis, MN
MARGINAL RISK (isolated hail/wind along the dryline): Dallas, TX; Fort Worth, TX; Arlington, TX; St. Louis, MO; Plano, TX

DAY 4 — Tuesday, May 19, 2026 (SPC Day 4-8 update, issued 0358 AM CDT)
Threats: continued severe potential with damaging wind and large hail along the cold front from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes Region. SPC shifted probabilities eastward and northward with this update in line with cold front timing. A specific 15%/30% area is depicted in the Day 4 graphic; the Day 4-8 product does not publish a city list, so cities are not included for this day.
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