What lessons on deterrence can Estonia and Taiwan draw from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine?

Despite the geographical distance, Taipei and Tallinn face many similar concerns. Notably, both share the neighbourhood with large revisionist powers – Russia and China – pursuing aggressive foreign policies. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has already altered the international security environment. Now, it is high time we reflect on the present and future challenges for deterrence.

The International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) will host a virtual panel discussion by top Estonian, Taiwanese, and US experts who will address the lessons from Ukraine that Estonian and Taiwanese decision-makers need to draw to improve their deterrence policies and capabilities. The panel moderated by Dr Ivan U. K. Klyszcz, a research fellow at the ICDS, will attempt to answer the following questions:

What Ukraine’s experience of fighting a war of self-defence can teach both Estonia and Taiwan?
What deterrence options are available to them?
What is the role of allies and partners? What is the future of deterrence?
Speakers

Eric Chan, a senior Korea and China strategist at the US Air Force’s Checkmate Directorate. His areas of expertise include DPRK/PRC military capabilities, political leadership, strategic culture, and Great Power competition. Mr Chan holds a master’s degree in international affairs from George Washington University.

Tony Lawrence, head of the defence policy and strategy programme and research fellow at the ICDS. His research focus is on the future of NATO’s Baltic Air Policing mission, European defence policy, air defence of the three Baltic states, and maritime aspects of deterrence and defence in the Baltic region. Mr Lawrence was also an assistant professor at the Baltic Defence College.

Dr Jyun-yi Lee, an associate research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) in Taipei. His expertise covers theories of non-traditional security, hybrid threats, grey zone conflicts, and the foreign and security policies of small states. Dr Lee holds a PhD in international relations from the University of East Anglia.

The discussion will be moderated by Dr Ivan U. K. Klyszcz, research fellow at the ICDS. His areas of expertise include Russian foreign policy towards the Global South, Grand Strategy, and Russian domestic politics. Dr Klyszcz received his PhD in International Relations from the University of Tartu.

This event is the second webinar of a series of events meant to facilitate the exchange among prominent experts in their fields from Estonia, Taiwan, and the US. The webinar will be followed by a report to be published by ICDS in the spring of 2024. The first webinar of this series – “Historical Legacy or Geopolitical Ambitions?” – was held on 24 April 2023 and addressed China and Russia’s aggressive foreign policy.

Видео What lessons on deterrence can Estonia and Taiwan draw from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine? канала International Centre for Defence and Security