The Stock Market Is Now MORE HAWKISH Than The FED

The stock market SOLD OFF after the CPI came in hotter than expected once again for the fourth month in a row. Despite the miss being small, it further reinforced the idea that inflation is not dissipating as quickly and that means less rate cuts from the Fed. By the end of the day the Fed futures were only pricing in 1.5 rate cuts by the end of the year. The unique thing about this, is that if you plot the Fed futures on a curve, it is substantially more hawkish than the Fed's dot plot. Even more so, bond yields after the data today have reached a point where they are also implying way less cuts than the Fed just affirmed a few weeks ago. All of this weighed on markets today but surprisingly the S&P 500 didn't fall as much as some people expected. This leaves room for the data tomorrow to have a big effect on the market as we will be getting the PPI. All in all, the markets still remain on the path, but after today's move and 10 year yields above 4.5%, all the data moving forward will be crucial. After this brief market and CPI recap, I go over my portfolio and 3 stocks for tomorrow. Despite the trades available related to the data like bonds & gold stocks, I will be watching BABA stock coming into next week as positive comments from Jack Ma helped keep the stock up today. Then I go over NVDA stock and the trade I made on INTC stock, there is also MRVL stock AI event tomorrow. Finally, I go over JPM stock & C stock and give a quick recap on how to price in earnings.

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