Technical Analysis Based Trading: Large Initial Balances | Axia Futures

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Richard teaches a market profile trading strategy based around the initial balance (I.B.) range as an early identifier for the day type. A large I.B. tells you early on that there was early initiative with people executing positions quickly, knowing exactly what they wanted to do, and leaves less positions to be put on later in the day. The early initiative in the day takes away willingness of the market to move later in the day. Therefore, once noting a large I.B., you can expect to see little range expansion and more reversal trade setups.

We see examples of this in the Eurostoxx 50 and Dax where large I.B.'s show willingness to of buyers to respond aggressively at the lower edge of the trading range, but unable to initiate higher later in the day. Identifying this early helps to adjust strategy and play reversals back towards the middle of the range. This is a counter-intuitive strategy because the activity early on can be seen as a sign that it will get even busier as the day goes on, but actually the positions already being put on taken off early creates less potential for continued activity. As a general rule, a smaller initial balances tends to create larger range extensions, and larger initial balances are more likely to create consolidated days.

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