How to Think About Probability Visually - The Bayesian Bar

In this video I share with you a useful visual tool that I learned from the philosopher John Hawthorne for thinking about probabilistic reasoning, called the Bayesian Bar. This video provides an introduction to the bar and in another video, linked below, I'll show you how the bar relates to Bayes Theorem.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zlaFnYqGYo

You might also find it helpful to look at a short article I have written that introduces the Bayesian Bar -
https://www.academia.edu/41820082/Introducing_Bayesianism_Through_The_Bayesian_Bar

And here are two video links of John Hawthorne talking about and making use of the Bayesian Bar -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Gl_w1yMgCg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ItV-gPtxtL0
This is not a video on the problem of evil. But if you want to learn about the way that evil can be thought of as evidence against theism that parallels what I say here, then have a look at the paper 'Evil and Evidence' by Matthew A. Benton, John Hawthorne, & Yoaav Isaacs. You can find a draft of their paper here - https://philpapers.org/archive/BENEAE-5.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3pN7c16gi4o5QKFlxPx1zoZbqU2SttzU0rgAGjZ6uxdTffv1vqxpHCzFw

Paul Draper's work is also another place where you can read about how evil is evidence against theism that mirrors what I say here.

Видео How to Think About Probability Visually - The Bayesian Bar канала Thinking illustrated