This Map Helps Explain Why the Russia-Ukraine War Hasn’t Ended

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Two months into the Russia-Ukraine War, and the battle still continues. This video helps explain why the parties have not yet reached a settlement. War is best thought of as bargaining failure, which can happen as a consequence of differing expectations of what will happen in the event of a conflict. Russia's failure to take Kyiv provided helpful information. But it hasn't completely resolved the information asymmetry. Now what matters is how the war will play out when Russia is just focused on the southern and eastern fronts. Until that gets resolved, there still may not be a forthcoming deal.

0:00 Introduction
0:55 February: Russia's Three-Front Invasion
2:32 March: Kyiv Offensive Stalls
2:45 April: Russia Reorients East
3:06 Why Did the War Begin?
4:14 Russia Learns It Was Wrong
5:16 Why Did Putin Have Bad Information?
6:43 War Provides New Information, But Also a New Strategy

Images licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en): antenna attack by mvs.gov.ua (https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=321830783305911&set=a.291369769685346), rubble by mvs.gov.ua (https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=325462792942710&set=pcb.325463152942674), downed plane by dsns.gov.ua (https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=326649719502924&set=pcb.326650032836226), Zalensky portrait by president.gov.ua (https://www.president.gov.ua/en/president/biografiya), abandoned tank by mvs.gov.ua (https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=325710482917941&set=pcb.325710929584563), raised flag by dshv.mil.gov.ua (https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=343533637820631&set=a.291577646349564), advancing Russian tank by mil.ru (https://z.mil.ru/spec_mil_oper/media/video/watch.htm?id=17464@morfVideoAudioFile), Moskva by mil.ru (http://мультимедиа.минобороны.рф/files/morf/VMF_wallpapers.zip), destroyed road by president.gov.ua (https://www.president.gov.ua/en/photos/robocha-poyizdka-prezidenta-ukrayini-na-kiyivshinu-4525), Putin portrait by kremlin.ru (http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65079/photos/65300), long table 1 by kremlin.ru (http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67830), long table 2 by kremlin.ru (http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67734/photos/67564), virtual meeting by kremlin.ru (http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/63541/photos), bilateral meeting by kremlin.ru (http://static.kremlin.ru/media/events/photos/big2x/HASKAQP7TQ4oTwtEEf6xBuIkWinXU3Hq.jpg), desk meeting by kremlin.ru (http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67829), Putin by flag by kremlin.ru (http://static.kremlin.ru/media/events/photos/big2x/HASKAQP7TQ4oTwtEEf6xBuIkWinXU3Hq.jpg), Putin with soldiers by kremlin.ru (http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58548/photos)

Images licensed under CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/deed.en): tanks by OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (https://www.flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16544235410/)

Видео This Map Helps Explain Why the Russia-Ukraine War Hasn’t Ended канала William Spaniel