1980s Oil War Economic Paradox

Oil as a pillar of modern sovereignty: the "#war #economy" is not a byproduct of historical friction, but rather a calculated mechanism for the global liquidation of resources.

For over a century, #oil has served as a primary catalyst for global conflicts, evolving from a curiosity of the coal age into the decisive strategic resource of the modern era. As demonstrated by the "first secret oil war" (1914–1918), the transition toward an oil-based military-industrial complex was institutionalized through a #symbiotic—and often #corrupt—relationship between sovereign states and what is known as the "#Oil_companies #Mafia."

The core of this fact-based theory holds that global instability in "oil lands" (such as the #Middle_East) is rarely accidental; rather, it is orchestrated to ensure a steady flow of mineral wealth at advantageous costs for industrial superpowers (#USA, #UK, #France, #Germany, #Japan, #Italy 🇮🇹, #China, and even #Russia). By embedding strategic access to #crude_oil 🛢🛢 into the very foundations of modern sovereignty, oil has become the supreme arbiter determining which regimes survive and which empires face decline.

This modern "war economy" reached a turning point during the 1979 #Guadeloupe_Conference (January 4–7). As part of a strategic maneuver aimed at destabilizing the region (the Middle East) and reconfiguring oil markets, European powers and media outlets—particularly the #BBC, Voice of America (#VOA), #Radio of #Israel (in Persian language)—provided the platform necessary for the installation of #Khomeini in #Iran, by disseminating his #propaganda speeches on a vast scale while Khomeini was sitting in his home in the quiet village of Neauphle-le-Château.

This political engineering operation and the so-called Revolution of 1979, led directly to the collapse of OPEC's control over production—as documented by Begg and Vernasca—transforming the market from a state of controlled scarcity to one of forced, high-volume "war situation #pumping". This pattern, which involves empowering radical forces serving extraction-related interests, finds a modern parallel in the rise to power of Al-Jolani in #Syria in December 2024. In both eras, the rhetoric of "exporting democracy" serves as a strategic cover. History shows that whenever oil prices rise—such as the peak of $125 per barrel recorded between 2011 and 2012 during the rise of #ISIS—induced instability follows, causing a price collapse. During the 2016–2017 period, this volatility drove prices below $40 per barrel, effectively providing a massive "energy subsidy" to industrial consumers (the US, UK, Germany, etc.).

In effect, the #microeconomics of conflict acts as a forced shift in the (oil) supply curve. Through a comparative static analysis of the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988), one can observe the transition from S1 (OPEC-controlled stability) to S2 (war/liquidation).

Under the pressure of an eight-year conflict and catastrophic war, the belligerent regimes are forced to #extract oil #ceaselessly to finance their military survival and feed their people. This "increase in oil supply" shifts the equilibrium from P1/q1 to P2/q2: quantity rises, while the price drops significantly for foreign buyers (in a #LONG_TERM period).

This #mechanism (of The Oil War Economy) transforms #mineral #wealth into immediate #liquidity, benefiting the "#war_winners"—the United States, Great Britain, France, Japan, Italy, etc.—at the cost of millions of #deaths and #injuries and the long-term exploitation of the #strategic #resources of entire nation. Furthermore, between 1980 and 1988, Germany reaped substantial benefits from industrial and #arms #exports, selling #billions of #dollars' worth of industrial equipments and war materials—including #chemical gas, high-tech chemical bombs, engineering/construction projects, and 1,027 tons of chemical #precursors for nerve agents—to #Saddam's regime.

Meanwhile, Italy sold millions of #landmines to Iraq (#maiming and #severing the #legs of thousands upon thousands of #children—even after the war and up to the present day), as well as #warships (built by #ALENIA and #Fincantieri) and various types of military equipment such as missiles and radar, to both sides of the conflict (Khomeini&Saddam) simultaneously! #No_Oil_War 🖋 #NO_War_Economy #NO_War_Anywhere

For further information: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/406067481_THE_OIL_WAR_ECONOMY_PowerPoint_Slides

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Видео 1980s Oil War Economic Paradox канала Kyros KHAKSARI