A Viral Market Update IX: Making Sense of the Market, A DIY Valuation of the S&P 500

The S&P 500 has just had the best 50-day return in its history, and is now up 32% from its low on March 23. Since the macroeconomic news has been not just bad, but historically bad, this has led to confusion and concern, confusion from those who see a disconnect between stock prices and the economy, and concern from some market experts that investors are in denial about the challenges that companies will face in the future. In this session, I address both the confused and the concerned, by first addressing why there is a disconnect and next providing a framework for incorporating crisis effects into index value. My estimates yield a value of 2930 for the index, about 6% below the trading level on June 1, but those reflect my story. You can use the framework (and attached spreadsheet) to make it your story and your valuation. Let's get a crowd valuation of the index going in the shared Google spreadsheet.
Blog Post: http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2020/06/a-viral-market-update-ix-do-it-yourself.html
Slides: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/blog/ViralUpdate9.pdf
Valuation Spreadsheet: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/S&P500ValueJune1.xlsx
Google Shared Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cjq5ZqBnvoSdhUU0R1WDYuji_0vHtEvhwp_5OtrGn5Q/edit?usp=sharing

Видео A Viral Market Update IX: Making Sense of the Market, A DIY Valuation of the S&P 500 канала Aswath Damodaran